When Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. campaigned for the Philippine presidency in 2022, a key promise was to lower the retail price of rice to P20 per kilo. This promise resonated deeply with the electorate, as rice is a staple in Filipino households, providing a major source of daily carbohydrate intake. At that time, rice prices hovered around 45-50 pesos per kilo, making the pledge for cheaper rice a welcome prospect for a population already battered by inflation.

Two years into his presidency, however, the promise of more affordable rice remains unfulfilled. Despite wielding significant political capital, the Marcos administration has struggled to address the rising cost of rice. Contributing factors include global market volatility, policy frameworks favoring hoarders, smugglers, and traders, and the deteriorating state of local agriculture.

Supporters of the Marcos family often claim that during the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos Sr., the Philippines was the top rice producer in Asia. However, this assertion lacks historical accuracy. While certain policies existed, the shift from a robust agricultural sector to an economy focused on cheap labor and services marked Marcos Sr.'s tenure.

 The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), established in 1960, aimed to support agricultural development. However, its contributions failed to significantly boost local rice production. IRRI's data shows that from 1976 to 1979, the agricultural sector yielded only slightly more than half of the expected production per hectare. This stagnation highlights the gap between policy intentions and agricultural realities.

In response to rising rice prices, House Speaker Martin Romualdez, a cousin of President Marcos Jr., announced that the government would deploy all available measures to control costs. Proposed solutions include reducing the tariff on imported rice from 35% to 15% until 2028 and amending the Rice Tariffication Law to empower the National Food Authority (NFA) to import rice.

Farmers' groups have criticized these proposals, arguing that they primarily benefit importers and traders while exacerbating the already dire conditions of Filipino farmers. The move to strengthen the NFA is particularly contentious, given recent corruption scandals within the agency.

From an economic perspective, lowering tariffs on imported rice could flood the market with cheaper varieties, undermining local production. This could weaken the agricultural sector further and increase dependency on imports. While the Rice Tariffication Law provides subsidies for rice producers, without a consistent national policy to bolster rice production, these measures are seen as short-term fixes rather than solutions to fundamental problems.

As an agricultural country, the Philippines' dependence on rice imports to meet domestic demand is a glaring institutional irony. According to the Department of Agriculture, achieving self-sufficiency requires producing 16 million metric tons of rice. With a self-sufficiency ratio of 77% in 2022, around a quarter of rice consumption is met through imports.

Without substantial state investment in the rice sector, reliance on imports is expected to grow. This dependency is further threatened by climate change impacts, which are likely to reduce yields for local farmers.

Given rice's critical role in Filipino diets, the Marcos administration must focus on strengthening the agricultural sector. Long-term solutions should replace band-aid policies to address the underlying issues and ensure food security for the nation.